April Leaders Rally Right Into Key Resistance Levels. We're Not in an Uptrend Yet.
The market may finally be showing its first signs of life, but we're not in an uptrend yet.
Market Regime: DEFENSIVE — STILL MOSTLY IN CASH.
This Week’s BEST Ideas - see the focus list below for details
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ AMD
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ MU
⭐⭐⭐⭐ NBIS
⭐⭐⭐⭐ DELL
⭐⭐⭐ BE
Despite the momentum rally this week, QQQ remains below its 50-day moving avg (705 vs 719). Until that changes, I continue to view this as a defensive tape.
Still no new buys for me. I spent most of the week in cash.
QQQ and Semis (SOXX/SMH) are already running into obvious resistance overhead here. We’ll likely need strong earnings to power us higher through these levels. If not, the rally risks becoming another failed attempt ahead of a broader correction.
The Tape Finally Changed
Yesterday and today’s action in momentum stocks was the first meaningful character change we’ve seen in weeks.
Earlier in the month, every rally attempt was sold almost immediately. This time buyers responded well to the gap down on Wednesday morning only to sell into the close. It’s a small change worth paying attention to.
If you’ve tried buying breakouts over the past few weeks, you’ve probably been chopped up. That’s the environment we’ve been in. As much as I love buying breakouts, this hasn’t been the market for it. Until the indexes repair themselves, I'd much rather buy constructive pullbacks.
The best breakouts usually appear right after everyone stops believing in them. We’re not there yet, but this is the first week that feels like we’re moving in that direction.
Earnings Will Decide Whether This Rally Has Legs
Analysts continue raising estimates into this week’s reports. They have underestimated the earnings impact of AI over the last few quarters, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see additional strength as earnings are released.
That said, I would still be quick to trim into extended rallies here…
My intermediate-term view hasn’t really changed. I think we’re going to need either greater geopolitical clarity or a more favorable macro backdrop before this becomes a sustained advance.
The other chart I’m watching closely is the 10-year Treasury yield. Yields remain in a stubborn uptrend and are approaching another important resistance level that could lead to a breakout. If they break higher again, that would likely create another headwind for technology and other long-duration growth stocks.
Leadership Is Starting to Improve
One of the more encouraging developments this week has been the return of several of the April leaders.
NVDA is starting to show real strength at exactly the same time the semiconductor group is testing major resistance. If NVDA can continue to lead from here, it has a chance to pull the rest of the group with it.
That doesn’t guarantee a sustained move, but it’s exactly what you’d want to see if the AI trade is going to reassert itself.
The next test is whether semis can actually push through resistance rather than stall here. If they can, it would be a meaningful step repairing the broader growth complex.
Memory Stocks Continue to Stand Out
Micron ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ continues to be one of the strongest names on my screen.
The stock reclaimed its key moving averages on strong volume and has held those gains well. That’s the type of action I want to see from potential leaders. Now has the 20-day moving avg as next level of resistance.
AMD, MXL and several other semiconductor names are beginning to tell a similar story and are perking up. They’re not all buyable today, but they’re getting much closer.
What I’m Watching Now
The market still hasn’t given the all-clear, but it’s finally giving us names worth paying attention to.
Over the next few days, I’m focused on these three things:
QQQ reclaiming its 20-day moving avg as the first step toward a full repair.
Semiconductor leadership continuing to strengthen instead of fading into resistance
Earnings confirm the improving price action rather than reversing it.
If those pieces come together, I’ll become more aggressive. Until then, I’m happy keeping cash as a position.
This Week’s High Conviction Watchlist
AMD ★★★★ Above every major moving average after reclaiming institutional support. One of the strongest large-cap semis on my screen.
📍 Ideal Buy Zone: $526–532 — the 10/20-EMA confluence on a quiet first pullback after the V
🚀Aggressive: >$561.50 (5-day high) with 20%+ RVOL. Day-of chase → 0.3% size.
➕ Add Above: $574.20, then ATH $584.73.
🛑 Stop Zone: $498–516 (under the 50-day at 505 from the ideal zone)
R/R: From 528 vs 500 stop → ATH retest 585 = 2.0R; through ATH ~640 = 4R.
NBIS ★★★ Sharpest V-recovery in the neocloud group, back above the 10 and 20-day. Needs weeks of basing under the 50 before it proves the low is in.
Neocloud leader saw a −45% crash to 164.31, then the monster U&R — three straight recovery days to 228.67, now 218. Above 10/20-EMA, under the 50 (226).
📍 Ideal Buy Zone: $200–210 (20-EMA / breakaway retest holding 195).
🚀Aggressive: >$228.70 w/ RVOL.
➕Add: >$235. Stop: $195–197.
R/R: ~5R to the prior high.
HUT ★★★ Violent recovery off the flush low, now fighting the 50-day from below. Clears 114.60 on volume and this V starts becoming a real base.
−41% flush, violent V, now above the 10/20-EMA cluster, 50-day at 111 right overhead — that’s the next fight…
📍 Ideal Buy Zone: $103–106 (10/20-EMA hold after the 50-day rejection resolves).
🚀 Aggressive: >$114.60 with 20% RVOL — that clears both the recovery high and the 50-day in one move.
➕Add: $126.50 (20-day high).
Stop Zone: $96–98 (under the round 100 and the last shelf; 8% from the ideal zone).
R/R: 104 / 96 stop → 126.5 = 2.7R; to 140 = 4.3R. Spec sizing (9.5% ADR).
DELL ★★★★ Bounced 9% off the 50-day today with a 7-week flag on the weekly. Earnings are six weeks out, which gives this setup something the others don't have: time.
469.47 ATH → 368.15 Monday → today +9.3% to 442, reclaiming the 10- and 20-EMA in a single bar. Weekly bull flag, 7-week count, intact.
📍 Ideal Buy Zone: $415–425 — the 10/20-EMA breakaway retest after 2–3 days of digestion. Not today: this bar has consumed >100% of ATR; buying +9% is the definition of the chase.
🚀Aggressive: >$451.40 (today’s high) on a later day with 20% RVOL, or the $463.50 pivot.
➕Add Above: $463.50 → ATH $469.50.
Stop Zone: $398–403 (under the round 400; the gap-day low 413.77 is your early-warning line).
BE ★★ Sitting on the rising 150-day after giving back 45% in a month. Earnings hit Monday, and I don’t front-run prints on broken charts.
📍 Ideal Buy Zone: Post-ER only: $205–215 if it holds 194.60 and prints a higher low on results.
🚀Aggressive: Post-ER PEG through the 20-EMA (~$246) on massive RVOL.
➕Add Above: $276 (10-day high).
Stop Zone: $193–195 (under the 5-day low / 150-day).
R/R: 210 entry / 193 stop → 276 = 3.9R.
Final Thoughts
This was the first week in a while that gave me some optimism.
I’m still not ready to get aggressive. The indexes are running into important resistance, and we’ve seen too many failed rally attempts over the past few weeks to assume this one will be different.
That said, the watchlist is getting better. More stocks are starting to reclaim key moving averages, and some of the leaders from earlier this year are beginning to wake up again. That’s exactly what I want to see before putting more cash to work.
Now it’s up to the market. If earnings can push the indexes through these resistance levels and leadership continues to improve, I’ll start getting more aggressive. If not, I’m perfectly happy staying patient and waiting for better odds.
Cash is still my largest position—and for now, I think that’s the right trade.